By Oliver Griffin
Sao Paulo — Broker StoneX on Wednesday slashed its forecast for a global sugar surplus in the 2025/26 season to just 870,000 metric tonnes, citing a lower outlook for production in India.
In its January report, StoneX forecast a surplus of 2.9-million tonnes for the annual global cycle running from October to September.
The broker reduced that estimate after cutting its outlook for sugar production in India, now estimated at 29.7-million tonnes, from 32.3-million tonnes previously.
A lower surplus could be a respite for sugarcane growers and sugar mills who have struggled during a prolonged period of historically low prices.
Southern Indian states Maharashtra and Karnataka experienced problems such as premature flowering during peak harvest months, while cane productivity fell in Uttar Pradesh, StoneX said.
Brazil, the world’s top sugar producer, is forecast to see sugar production of 40.5-million tonnes in the current harvest of its key centre-south region, which has just a few weeks left.
Brazil’s centre-south sugar output in the 2026/27 season starting next month is expected to stay about flat even as sugarcane crush rises 1.7% to 620.5-million tonnes, StoneX said. It added that cane ethanol output is likely to increase to 25.9-billion litres amid low sugar prices.
StoneX expects Brazil’s maize ethanol production in the centre-south to jump by more than a fifth to 11.3-billion litres, up from its January forecast of 11-billion litres, accounting for the inclusion of new mills.
Total ethanol output in Brazil’s centre-south in the 2026/27 cycle is forecast to hit a record 37.2-billion litres, StoneX said.
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