Rubio says Iran war to last ‘weeks not months’

By Humeyra Pamuk and Steve Holland

Paris/Washington — The war in the Gulf is still expected to last weeks, not months, and Washington can meet all its objectives without using ground troops, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said on Friday.

Rubio told reporters after meeting G7 counterparts in France that Washington was “on or ahead of schedule in that operation and expects to conclude it at the appropriate time here — a matter of weeks, not months”.

While he said Washington could achieve its aims without ground troops, he acknowledged that it was deploying some to the region “to give the president maximum optionality and maximum opportunity to adjust the contingencies, should they emerge”.

Washington has dispatched two contingents of thousands of Marines to the region, the first of which is due to arrive around the end of March aboard a huge amphibious assault ship. The Pentagon is also expected to deploy thousands of elite airborne soldiers.

The deployments have raised concern that an air war that has already disrupted global energy supplies could turn into a prolonged ground battle.

But US President Donald Trump has also emphasised this week what he has described as productive negotiations aimed at a diplomatic solution to the war, despite repeated assertions from Tehran that no such talks have begun.

Rubio said Washington was still waiting for a formal response from Iran to a 15-point proposal it sent this week.

“We’ve had an exchange of messages and indications from the Iranian system, whatever’s left of it, about a willingness to talk about certain things,” Rubio said. “We’re waiting for further clarification about … who is it that we will be talking to, what will we be talking about and when will we be talking.”

Deadline extended

On Thursday, Trump extended a deadline by 10 days for Iran to reopen the blockaded Strait of Hormuz or face attacks against its civilian energy grid. He said talks were “going very well”.

A source briefed on the matter told Reuters that Trump and top White House officials had been told via interlocutors that an Iranian counter-proposal was likely to arrive later on Friday.

The US proposal, sent via Pakistan, is reported to include demands ranging from dismantling Iran’s nuclear and missile programmes to relinquishing control of the world’s most important trade route for energy supplies.

While Iranian officials have publicly rebuffed US diplomacy, they have said they are keeping channels open through third countries to exchange messages.

An Iranian official told Reuters on Thursday that senior officials had reviewed the US proposal and felt it served only US and Israeli interests, although diplomacy had not ended.

Iranian media reported strikes on Iran’s decommissioned heavy-water nuclear research reactor and a factory producing yellowcake uranium late on Friday, although they said there were no radiation leaks or danger arising from either attack.

The war has spread across the Middle East, killing thousands of people and causing the biggest disruption in history to energy supplies, hitting the global economy with soaring oil, gas and fertiliser prices that have fuelled inflation fears.

In Iran, more than 1,900 people have been killed and at least 20,000 injured, said Maria Martinez of the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies.

Attacks on Israel by Iran’s Lebanese ally Hezbollah have also prompted an Israeli onslaught that has displaced a fifth of Lebanon‘s population.

The US, which has set out to neutralise Iran’s long-range strike capabilities, can only confirm that about a third of the country’s missile arsenal has been destroyed, five people familiar with the US intelligence told Reuters.

As the damage mounts and with no end in sight, Gulf Arab states are telling the US that any deal must not merely end the war but also permanently curb Iran’s missile and drone capabilities and ensure global energy supplies are never again weaponised, four Gulf sources said.

Far from being laid low, Iran’s clerical rulers and the increasingly powerful Guards are still peppering the region with airstrikes, driving up energy prices and roiling financial markets.

While a third of Iran’s missile stock may still be available for use, another third is likely to be damaged or buried in tunnels, some of which could be recovered once fighting stops, said four of the sources familiar with US intelligence, who asked to remain anonymous.

One source said the intelligence on Iran’s drone capability was similar, with about a third most likely destroyed.

Stock markets continued their slide on Friday, while the Brent crude oil benchmark approached $112, having risen more than 50% since the war began.

In the US, where Trump is politically vulnerable to rising fuel prices, diesel in California hit an all-time high at an average $7.17 a gallon, the American Automobile Association said.