By Krisztina Than and Anita Komuves
Budapest — Hungarians were voting on Sunday in an election that could end Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s 16-year hold on power, rattle Russia and send shockwaves through right-wing circles across the West, including US President Donald Trump’s White House.
Orbán, a eurosceptic nationalist, has carved out a model of an “illiberal democracy” seen as a blueprint by Trump’s Make America Great Again (Maga) movement and its admirers in Europe.
But many Hungarians have grown increasingly weary of Orbán, 62, after three years of economic stagnation and soaring living costs, as well as reports of oligarchs close to the government amassing more wealth.
Pollsters predicted a record voter turnout of well over 70%, and data at 11am GMT (1pm) showed more than 54% of voters had cast their ballots, up from 40% at the same time in the 2022 election. Television footage showed long queues outside some voting stations in Budapest.
Opinion polls have shown Orbán’s Fidesz party trailing Peter Magyar’s upstart centre-right opposition Tisza party by between seven and nine percentage points, with Tisza at about 38%-41%.
East vs West
Magyar, 45, after casting his vote in Budapest, said Hungarians will write history at this election as they choose “between East and West”, and he also urged voters to report any irregularities they may encounter. “Election fraud is a very serious crime,” he added.
Magyar expressed confidence about the outcome of the election, saying the only question is whether Tisza wins a simple majority or a two-thirds majority in the 199-seat parliament, which would allow it to amend Hungary’s constitution.
Orbán, who cast his vote in the same Budapest district, told reporters he had come “to win”.
“There is a constitution in Hungary and it needs to be followed. The decision of the people needs to be respected,” said the veteran leader, who swept the last four elections.
Four years ago, the OSCE Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights said the ballot was run professionally but an uneven playing field could have affected the result.
War in Ukraine
Casting his vote for Tisza in the Hungarian capital, Mihaly Bacsi, 27, said the country needs change.
“We need an improvement in public mood. There is too much tension in many areas and the current government only fuels these sentiments,” he said.
“We need to return to our Western orientation, that is where Fidesz also started a long time ago and it could be that we will return to our Western path without [Fidesz].”
Another voter, who gave her name as Zsuzsa, said she wants continuity. “I would really like if all the results that have been achieved in recent years remain — and I am terribly afraid of the war,” she said, referring to the conflict raging in Ukraine, Hungary’s eastern neighbour.
Orbán has cast the election as a choice between “war and peace”. During campaigning, the government blanketed the country with signs warning that Magyar would drag Hungary into Russia’s war with Ukraine, something he strongly denies.
The vote is being closely watched in Brussels, with many EU peers criticising Orbán, a friend of Russian President Vladimir Putin and a close Trump ally, over what they say is an erosion of Hungary’s democratic rule, media freedom and minority rights.
An Orbán defeat would deprive Russia of its closest ally in the EU, while for Ukraine it could mean the release of a €90bn EU loan, which the Hungarian leader has been blocking.
State corruption
Orbán has won public endorsements from the Trump administration, culminating in a visit to Budapest by vice-president JD Vance last week, as well as from the Kremlin and far-right leaders in Europe.
But his campaign has been shaken by media reports alleging that his government colluded with Moscow. Orbán, who denies any wrongdoing, says his goal is to protect Hungary’s national identity and traditional Christian values within the EU and its security in a dangerous world.
Magyar, a formerOrbán loyalist, has tapped into discontent over alleged state corruption and falling living standards, with young voters particularly eager for change.
Despite Tisza’s poll lead, analysts caution that the outcome of the vote remains uncertain, with many undecided voters, a redrawing of the electoral map in favour of Fidesz and a high proportion of ethnic Hungarians in neighbouring countries, who mostly support the ruling party.
They say any result from a Tisza supermajority to a Fidesz majority is possible.
If Tisza does win, unwinding the legal and institutional changes Orbán has made may prove a daunting task for a new government if it has a simple majority in parliament.
Polling stations were due to close at 5pm GMT. Final election results may be available only later this week.
