The recent summit in Tianjin and the large military parade in Beijing didn’t get much media coverage in SA. Yet these were significant events that offer a glimpse into what tomorrow’s geopolitical reality might look like.
As Americans focused on the start of their football season, China orchestrated the most significant diplomatic gathering in recent times. It is safe to assume that few Americans, especially those on Capitol Hill in Washington, paid much attention to what took place.
However, the significance of the carefully orchestrated SCO Summit 2025 in Tianjin and the Chinese military parade in Beijing a few days later cannot be overemphasised in the context of the global power shifts we’ve seen this year. Apart from the constant stream of news emanating from the White House, US media outlets were for the most part focused on the Labour Day weekend, while South Africans celebrated the start of spring.
The meeting of the 20 Asian, Middle Eastern and Russian leaders included a scene where India’s Narendra Modi and Vladimir Putin walked hand in hand towards Xi Jinping. Combined with the ostentatious military parade that took place in Beijing the following Monday, these were telling events. They offer a sneak peek into what a post-American, realigned world order could look like.
China is sending a clear message to the world with these carefully orchestrated events: we have re-emerged as a global force, and we will not capitulate to US economic or military pressure.
China is sending a clear message to the world with these carefully orchestrated events: we have re-emerged as a global force, and we will not capitulate to US economic or military pressure. We offer an alternative to the Western-set global rules, and we’re ready to take the mantle of world leader as the US steps back.
This is part of Xi’s sweeping vision for China as future world leader, positioning China as a trusted alternative.
According to Jonathan Czin, the Michael H Armacost chair in foreign policy studies at Brookings, “Xi is trying to convey China’s role in international affairs. This is clearly signalling … that China has arrived as a great power and it’s not going anywhere.”
Trump’s transactional approach to international relations, characterised by economic pressure, has inadvertently accelerated the very outcome he sought to prevent. Rather than bringing China, Russia and India to heel, US pressure has pushed them towards each other and towards a shared vision of non-Western global governance.
What is the Shanghai Co-operation Organisation?
The Shanghai Co-operation Organisation (SCO) was established in 2001. With similar economic objectives to Brics, of which SA is a member, it’s a Eurasian economic and international security organisation to promote regional stability and foster economic growth. SCO’s 10 member states include the Central Asian countries as well as Russia, Belarus, India, Pakistan and Iran. These nations represent 40% of the world population.
While the SCO has been fairly subdued based on Western media reports, China’s promise of investment will probably persuade more nations to seek membership. This month’s summit is an indication of support for China’s vision of an alternative international governance system outside of the US-led order that has existed since the end of World War II.
The main outcome was a joint agreement to establish an SCO Development Bank, similar to the Asian Development Bank, that finances economic and infrastructure programmes. Russia has blocked such an organisation for years, as Xi has pushed for its creation. Given his recent pledge of millions in grants to SCO members, it indicates a new hierarchy with Russia financially subservient to China.
Xi pledged millions in grants to SCO members, and has pushed this for years, with Russia blocking such an organisation.
The image that changed everything
Apart from the expected show of unity among these member nations, the carefully constructed message China presented to the world is that they can be successful without the US. The sight of Modi, Putin and Xi standing side-by-side with Kim Jong-Un joining Xi and Putin at the military parade, is a startling indication of how the world is changing. It signals a growing divide and elevates the significance of non-Western forums.
The sight of Modi, Putin and Xi standing side-by-side … is a startling indication of how the world is changing.
The scene of Putin and Modi walking hand-in-hand through a small crowd of leaders and journalists towards Xi, with all three laughing in animated conversation, was really telling. Whether this was entirely planned we will never know, but it sends a clear message to the US that Trump’s key diplomatic negotiation power tool — his tariffs — has pushed together the very powers he had hoped to keep in line economically, yet separate politically.
This scene represents more than 3-billion of the world’s population of 8-billion people. The largest manufacturer, the largest national population — and by definition, the largest consumer market — and one of the richest countries in terms of natural resources.
From a cultural perspective, when China speaks it is important to read the spaces between the lines. The unspoken message here is clear — China is constructing a global system separate from the US-led global order. Given Trump’s 2025 “America First” international policy and the rapid erosion of international trust in the US as an economic and security ally, smaller nations are drawn to China’s promise of economic and political stability.
In his speech at the summit Xi stated that the world is in a state of flux, and that China is the responsible, stable power to guide it into the future. “[We must] oppose the Cold War mentality, block confrontation and bullying practices,” he declared, an obvious swipe at Trump and reference to current US behaviour.
As a footnote, it could certainly be that Putin was galvanised by support from China and the bloc at the recent summit. Experts believe there is a direct correlation between the recent Russian military drone incursion into Polish and Romanian airspace, and the intensified assault on Ukraine.
• Bouwer, a former Cape Town news reporter, is a business consultant who facilitates trade between China and SA. This is the first in a two-part series.
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