In his insightful book, The Digital Silk Road: China’s Quest to Wire the World and Win the Future, Jonathan E Hillman writes: “If history is written by the victors, so are fantasies of the future. Among the most alluring and dangerous of these tales, born in the blinding glow of Cold War victory, was the idea that communications technology would inevitably promote liberty.”
Hillman refers to former US president Ronald Reagan’s 1989 speech in London in which he proclaimed: “More than armies, more than diplomacy, more than the best intentions of democratic nations, the communications revolution will be the greatest force for the advancement of human freedom the world has ever seen.”
During the MTN editors’ round-table on Tuesday, I reflected on this theory and made a mental note to test it now.
While communications tech has undoubtedly spurred innovation and connected societies, it has also led to unforeseen consequences and intensified geopolitical tensions, particularly between the US and China.
Chinese President Xi Jinping has articulated an ambitious vision for his country: to dominate advanced tech manufacturing by 2025, lead global standard-setting by 2035, and emerge as a global superpower by 2050.
Central to this strategy is mobilising Chinese companies to invest heavily in developing domestic digital infrastructure and expanding their products’ reach through initiatives such as the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). The Digital Silk Road, a component of the BRI, epitomises China’s efforts to achieve technological independence at home while securing a dominant position in future global markets.
Lobbying leaders
In response, the US has adopted a defensive stance to curtail China’s technological ascent. The expansive reach of US sanctions, for instance, prohibits any company — American or foreign — from selling components that use American intellectual property to Chinese tech giant Huawei.
US officials have also been lobbying international leaders and corporations to avoid incorporating Chinese technology suppliers into their networks. Despite these measures, challenges persist.
Last month, The Wall Street Journal reported on a “barely concealed network of buyers, sellers, and couriers” circumventing the restrictions of President Joe Biden’s administration to supply Nvidia’s most advanced generative AI chips to China. Additionally, concerns have arisen over China’s TP-Link Technology, with US legislators urging investigations into potential national security risks posed by the widespread use of its Wi-Fi routers.
TikTok sued the US government on Tuesday over a law that would force its Chinese parent company, ByteDance, to sell the app or face a national ban. US authorities suspect the app is being used by China to harvest data on citizens and state institutions.
Amid this intensifying tech rivalry between China and the US, MTN, Africa’s largest mobile operator by assets, finds itself at a crossroads. During the MTN round-table I brought the subject up. MTN CEO Ralph Mupita acknowledged the potential bifurcation of technology stemming from the US-China standoff.
“We’ve spent time in Shenzhen, China, engaging with companies such as Huawei, ZTE, and Build Your Dreams (BYD),” Mupita said. “Our interest in BYD extends beyond cars to their leadership in battery technology. There’s a very clear [potential] bifurcation. By the time we get to 6G standards, we might see two distinct standards, unlike the ubiquitous standards of 3G, 4G, and 5G we have now.”
Faced with these global dynamics, MTN has adopted a pragmatic, nonaligned approach.
MTN is not choosing between Beijing and Washington. “We spend time in both China and the US. Our network’s core components predominantly come from European and American suppliers, a result of design and historical factors. However, on the radio side, 80% of the global market is dominated by Huawei and ZTE.”
This somewhat balanced strategy allows MTN to leverage the best of both worlds.
“We’re making intelligent choices about where to use specific components within our network and IT systems,” Mupita explained. “We adopt best practices from both markets and are transparent about our approach. We’re not aligning ourselves with any side; we’re selecting components that best fit our network’s needs.”
MTN’s strategic positioning offers a compelling blueprint for other African telecom navigating the tumultuous waters of global tech geopolitics.
By refusing to be pigeonholed into choosing sides, MTN ensures access to diverse technologies and innovations, safeguarding its operational efficiency and service quality.
Hillman’s observation rings particularly true in this context when he writes: “The US and its allies should brace for a long competition. The network wars are not likely to be decided in a single winner-take-all confrontation.”
As the tech rivalry between the US and China intensifies, African operators such as MTN must continue to adopt flexible, strategic approaches, ensuring they remain agile and competitive in an increasingly polarised global landscape.
MTN’s measured, discerning strategy emphasises the importance of adaptability and neutrality in a complex geostrategic environment.
By carefully selecting technologies that best serve their networks and customers, without overtly aligning with either global power, MTN exemplifies a prudent path forward for African telecom operators amid the unfolding “network wars”.
• Lourie is founder and editor of TechFinancials.
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