From the study of photography we get two concepts that work well, when considered together, and provide an understanding of the machinery that feeds wars.
For this discussion we can set aside the causes, consequences and actors in the wars that pock landscapes around the world today. The discussion here is on ersatz technical conditions of supply and demand, but we may expand the field of discussion if we are in search of a fuller understanding of the relations that keep us together or pull us apart.
The joint concept of predatory voyeurism in photography provides an understanding of the way the photographer as predator goes in search of an activity. Once the camera lens is trained on the activity the photographer has an interest in the activity continuing — to keep taking pictures.
The “activity” that is referred to, at least in the work of the late Susan Sontag, is pornography, and the fatal attraction it holds for the voyeur behind the camera.
If the analogy holds, we may say that manufacturers of arms go in search of “markets”, which in effect makes them predators in search of war. Once they enter the theatre of war it is in their interests that “the market” for their wares remains open and uninterrupted. Like the photographer who wants to make pictures, they have a voyeuristic interest in the continuation of war.
We should not ignore the roles states play in promoting their manufacturing sectors. It is what states do. The data on arms transfers produced by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) shows that in 2015-25 there was an overall decrease in global arms transfers, though European imports increased by at least 150%.
There are three closely related explanations for this increase in arms purchases. One is the Ukrainian conflicts, from Maidan in 2014 to the war with Russia. A second is the “remilitarisation” of Europe, which is inexorably linked to the perceived or actual threat from Russia.
Difficult as it may be to consider separately, a third explanation is the increased unwillingness of the US to remain Nato’s biggest provider of financial and other resources, including boots on the ground.
Exploiting this increased spending is the arms industry, the predatory voyeur, which brings wars, conflict and military repression around the globe into a “market” for arms manufacturers. A most cursory look at the data shows that this market includes visible actors in Europe, Ukraine, Russia, Sudan, India, Pakistan, China, Turkey and Israel.
The data shows that Ukraine has, over the past five years, been the world’s largest importer of major arms. Kyiv’s imports increased nearly 100 times over (+9,627%) in 2020-24, when compared with 2015-19. The research by SIPRI found that Ukraine was the only European state among the world’s top 10 arms importers in 2020-24.
During this period the US was by far the largest exporter of major arms, with a share of 43% of global arms exports. Russia’s arms exports decreased 64% in 2015-19 and 2020-24, making it the world’s third largest arms exporter behind the US and France.
That data can be tortured to fit any story, but what may be said with some confidence is that manufacturers, producers, suppliers and traders have an interest in increasing or at least maintaining sales. In this sense it is important (to them) that wars continue, and that any pauses, breaks or discontinuities in demand are discouraged.
Manufacturers and their home states (states traditionally negotiate trade deals), have to go either in search of new markets, or markets have to be created. All told, it’s not too much of a stretch to imagine arms manufacturers as both predators and voyeurs.
• Lagardien, an external examiner at the Nelson Mandela School of Public Governance, has worked in the office of the chief economist of the World Bank as well as the secretariat of the National Planning Commission.
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