NEWS ANALYSIS | Winter without fear: inside the Eskom decision that keeps the lights on

It’s a decision that infuriated environmental activists. But for Eskom’s board and executives, it was a necessary decision to keep the lights on.

Eskom’s board in May 2024 resolved to postpone the mothballing of the Hendrina, Grootvlei and Camden coal-fired power stations until 2030, later than their original decommissioning schedule.

Camden, in service since 1969, and Grootvlei, which has injected power into the national grid since 1977, were supposed to have been retired last year, while Hendrina, around for the past 50 years, was initially set to be decommissioned this year.

The three power stations, all based in South Africa’s Mpumalanga province coal belt, together have an installed capacity of about 4,500MW.

Two years after the polarising decision, South Africa is set for its first winter without fear of the dreaded economy-sapping blackouts that came to be known as load-shedding.

Eskom has kept the lights on for more than a year without implementing load-shedding — underscoring the significant progress it has made since 2023 — a year in which the economy experienced more than 200 days of load-shedding.

Several things have occurred since the 2023 fiasco that culminated in stabilising the national grid.

The government roped in new leadership in the form of Dan Marokane as group CEO in March 2024 — following the exit of André de Ruyter, ending a disastrous term that culminated in his losing the support of the government and the board.

Marokane’s appointment was preceded by that of Bheki Nxumalo as head of generation and has been credited with playing an instrumental role in improving the performance of the grid — he was quick to show underperforming power station managers the door and replace them with more competent candidates.

It is, however, the fateful, albeit unpopular, decision to keep Camden, Grootvlei and Hendrina online that has also had a decisive impact — underscoring the tough trade-offs facing the country in keeping the lights on versus meeting its just transition commitments.

Eskom’s energy availability factor (EAF) improved to almost 65% in the 2026 financial year, from 55% in 2024.

Eskom spokesperson Daphne Mokwena said the move to postpone the decommissioning of the three power plants was a critical decision by the Eskom board, led by Mteto Nyati.

“It not only supported improvements in the EAF but also created space for critical maintenance at other stations not in full compliance with emissions requirements,” Mokwena said.

“As a result, by the close of last financial year and into the start of this financial year, the entire generation fleet achieved compliance with particulate emissions. The availability of these stations assisted stations such as Kendal, Lethabo, Matimba and others to undergo much-needed refurbishments, particularly on emissions control, alongside other major maintenance interventions.

“Although these three stations began the financial year with most units still on outage to ensure readiness for winter, we are pleased to report that as winter intensifies, their EAF today stands at Grootvlei 63%, Camden 73.4%, and Hendrina 78%.”

With Eskom’s coal fleet the biggest emitter of pollutants in the country, the decision to delay the mothballing of the three power plants has had its critics

The stations’ daily EAF contributions also significantly reduce diesel consumption, which directly strengthens Eskom’s bottom line.

With Eskom’s coal fleet the biggest emitter of pollutants in the country, the decision to delay the mothballing of the three power plants has had its critics.

A new report by Greenpeace Africa, the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air and GroundWork says that delaying the phase-out of coal-fired power in South Africa will result in devastating health and economic consequences.

The report found that keeping these plants open beyond their planned retirement dates will cause an estimated 32,000 additional premature deaths between 2026 and 2050 and cost the economy about R700bn in lost working days and pressure on the public health-care system.

Cynthia Moyo, climate and energy campaigner at Greenpeace Africa, said South Africa has more than enough wind, solar and storage capacity to replace the coal plants.

“Keeping these polluting plants open is a deliberate political choice that sacrifices human lives,” she said. “We demand the government accelerate the coal phase-out immediately and implement a just transition to renewable energy that protects workers and communities.”

The 2025 integrated resource plan assumes a phased shutdown of the coal fleet starting in 2029, with a significant reduction of 8GW in coal capacity between 2029 and 2030, followed by a further decline of 15GW between 2034 and 2042.

However, the fate of Eskom’s ageing coal fleet depends largely on whether new capacity will come online in time to secure energy security.

“Eskom’s approach to retiring coal-fired generation capacity is guided by the principle of ensuring security of supply,” Mokwena said. “Current plans provide for the shutdown of approximately 7.4GW of coal net capacity by 2030. At the same time, we continue to maintain all stations to ensure they remain ready to operate should security of supply dictate so.”