Strong copper prices, Chinese policy changes and a new, copper-focused CEO have put mining giant BHP’s share price on track to hit a fresh record this week as confidence in the group’s outlook rises.
Shares in the miner have flirted with R660, just R18 shy of a record high, in the build-up to its upcoming trading update on Wednesday.
They have climbed by more than 10% in the past 30 days, more than making up for a big slump in March, shrugging off fears about the Iran war’s lasting impact on global growth and base metal demand.
The quick recovery comes amid a sharp rebound in copper prices, with a series of market wins over the past month which have buoyed confidence in the “Big Australian”.
The rebound started on March 20 with BHP’s announcement of Brandon Craig, previously head of Americas, as incoming CEO.
Craig, a 26-year veteran of the company, impressed with his running of its coveted South American copper mines and, before that, his three-year stint leading the Australian iron ore division.
The appointment adds weight to the group’s laser focus on copper and the Americas division more broadly, which is expected to be the most important business for BHP in the coming years.
On top of its flagship Escondida and Antamina copper mines, the Americas are home to BHP’s multibillion-dollar crop nutrient project, Jansen.
The group sees Jansen Potash as an important avenue for growth — demand for the fertiliser ingredient is expected to grow 70% over the next quarter-century. Already, Craig has navigated an array of challenges to keep it on track.
Craig’s appointment, which suggests that copper remains central to BHP’s growth strategy, comes while the bronze metal’s price is soaring.
The growth of data centres spurred by the AI race, with industrialisation and electric vehicles, is expected to boost copper demand by 40% over the next 15 years.
In January, the metal’s price crossed $13,000 a tonne for the first time after climbing 40% in 2025.
As rivals contended with strikes, floods and other disruptions in the second half of last year, BHP has reported a steady operational performance and is on track to report better-than-expected copper volumes for the year ending in June.
While iron ore markets have been far less rosy, this division also experienced a confidence boost earlier this month. Reuters reported that China, by far the world’s biggest iron ore consumer, lifted its ban on purchases from BHP, ending a dispute that had stopped steel mills from buying its cargoes for more than six months.
While analysts reportedly cautioned against reading too much into it, the move, which came after visits by Craig and outgoing CEO Mike Henry in the preceding week, points to a strong relationship with the division’s biggest customer.
Shares in BHP, by far the biggest mining company on the JSE, edged slightly lower on Monday after six consecutive days of gain, peaking at R654.79 in intraday trading. Since the start of the year, they have rallied just shy of 30%, adding more than R700bn in value.
Would you like to comment on this article?
Sign up (it's quick and free) or sign in now.
Please read our Comment Policy before commenting.