President Cyril Ramaphosa is nonconfrontational. His preference for negotiations to resolve disputes has earned him a bad reputation as a vacillator.
However, when it comes to his political future as leader of the country and SA’s largest political party, he appears to have reached the end of his tether.
According to the SABC, Ramaphosa has dared his opponents in the party to give him a date on which he should leave. It remains unclear which of his two positions — the head of state or ANC president — he should supposedly vacate.
This follows media reports suggesting that Ramaphosa is ready to resign and he could do so as early as after this week’s leaders’ summit of the G20.
Much of that reporting is the product of hyperbole and lobbying.
There are many reasons why his enemies would want him to leave before the end of his tenure. His term as ANC president ends in December 2027 while his second — and last — term as head of state ends in 2029.
Ramaphosa’s corruption clean-up campaign has unsettled his comrades in the ANC. His call for leaders to subject themselves to lifestyle audits should make him forget about receiving Christmas cards in December.
Others blame him for the decline of the ANC’s electoral fortunes. In 2024 general elections, the ANC’s support dipped to about 40% and the party lost control of KwaZulu-Natal. This was after it lost control of key metros in the 2021 municipal elections.
As a result of its poor performance in last year’s elections, the party is governing with the help of coalitions. Of all the power-sharing arrangements, the Government of National Unity (GNU) — a coalition of 10 centrist parties — is not universally supported within the ANC and its labour and communist allies.
To be clear, with all its challenges, the GNU has been relatively good for the economy and, maybe, SA’s divided nation. Among its notable achievements has been pushing through structural reforms in network industries. Lately, its efforts in getting SA off the greylist paid off. SA was removed from the list of countries deemed to have weaker financial systems that enable terror financing and money-laundering.
After years of load-shedding, Eskom, the power utility, is stable and has recorded a profit. Its workforce may receive bonuses after many years.
In recognition of all this progress, ratings agency Standard & Poor’s has upgraded SA’s rating.
This progress cannot be divorced from Ramaphosa’s leadership of the country.
The country’s fragile economy cannot afford leadership uncertainty, which will quickly develop into costly policy uncertainty.
The president’s early and likely messy exit from office would undermine this stability and fuel uncertainty that the country can ill afford.
An emergency exit, as happened with his two predecessors, would benefit a few within the ANC, not the rest of the country.
The country’s fragile economy cannot afford leadership uncertainty, which will quickly develop into costly policy uncertainty.
The ANC has a poor record of managing succession. Its leadership squabbles after Nelson Mandela’s well-choreographed departure had notoriously paralysed governance.
Memorably, a 2007 joint letter by Thabo Mbeki and Jacob Zuma failed to insulate governance from the ANC’s factional battles.
Of course, this is not to say that other parties have neater succession plans. Zuma’s uMkhonto weSizwe party has a reshuffle every month and the DA, the second largest party, is headed for a turbulent elective conference in 2026.
The difference between the ANC and the other parties is important: none run governments. Only the DA runs the Western Cape and the City of Cape Town.
The DA has hitherto run both the province and the city in a decent fashion.
Ramaphosa was correct to dare his detractors to challenge his leadership in transparent party structures instead of smears, hysteria and shadow boxing in the media.
Both the pro-Ramaphosa and anti-Ramaphosa sides are guilty of these unhelpful theatrics.
Our economy, strangled by unemployment, corruption, inequality and poverty, needs and deserves mature leadership. The ANC needs to spare our economy from its leadership games.
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