SA’s agricultural export performance remained resilient in the third quarter, with total exports surging 13% year on year to $4.7bn, driven by strong global demand, improved port efficiency and favourable commodity prices.
Cumulative agricultural exports for the first nine months of the year reached $11.7bn, a 10% increase on the same period in 2024, according to the Agricultural Business Chamber (Agbiz).
Agbiz chief economist Wandile Sihlobo credited both higher volumes of various products and better commodity prices, despite persistent global uncertainties and shifting trade policies.
Africa retained its position as the largest regional market, accounting for 34% of total agricultural exports in the third quarter. Key exports to the continent included maize, maize meal, wine, nuts, sugar, wheat, fruit juices and live animals.
Asia and the Middle East collectively absorbed 25% of exports, led by produce, including citrus, apples, pears, beef, mutton, wool, grapes, berries and sugar, while the EU accounted for 23%, continuing to favour SA’s citrus, wine and high-value fruit products.
Exports to the Americas region made up 6% of the total, with the US representing half of that. However, exports to the US declined by 11% year on year in the third quarter, following a second-quarter surge when exporters took advantage of a temporary pause on higher tariffs.
“Given ongoing concerns about the higher tariffs SA faces in the US, it is worth highlighting that after some exporters took advantage of the 90-day pause of the higher tariffs and exported more volume than usual during that period in the second quarter of the year, we saw some cooling of exports in the third quarter,” Sihlobo said.
Recent adjustments by the US to its reciprocal tariffs and the exemption of certain food products have slightly eased bilateral tension, though future trade terms with Washington remain a key risk factor for SA producers.
Agricultural exports to the US accounted for 3% of farm product exports in the third quarter.
“Again, the 3% ... is not a small value, as few specific industries are primarily involved in these agricultural exports,” Sihlobo said. “These are mainly citrus, grapes wine, and fruit juices. Since the start of Agoa [African Growth and Opportunity Act], the percentage share of SA’s agricultural exports to the US has remained at these levels. From now on, a great deal hinges on whether SA succeeds in securing favourable trade terms with the US.”
The Citrus Growers’ Association of Southern Africa (CGA) this weekend welcomed a new executive order by US President Donald Trump, allowing a range of food products to be exempt from his punitive tariff regime, including SA oranges, which they argued would make SA oranges competitive in the US market.
The rest of the world, including the UK, accounted for 12% of SA agricultural exports in the third quarter.
Imports
In the third quarter agricultural imports totalled $1.9bn, a 2% decline year on year, according to data from Trade Map.
According to Sihlobo, the result is due to slightly lower values and volumes of major products SA imports, such as wheat, palm oil, poultry and whiskies.
Still, the cumulative agricultural imports in the first three quarters of the year are $5.7bn, up by 4% from the corresponding period in 2024.
“As we have highlighted on various occasions, SA lacks favourable climatic conditions for growing rice and palm oil and thus relies on imports of these products,” Sihlobo said.
SA imports nearly half the annual consumption of wheat. “In the Free State, which was once one of the country’s major wheat-growing regions, production has declined notably over time due to unfavourable weather conditions and profitability challenges of wheat compared to other crops.”
Imports also account for about 20% of the annual domestic poultry consumption.
All in all, the country recorded a trade surplus of $2.7bn in the third quarter — up 28% year on year.
Expand markets
The sector must now work to maintain its current export markets and expand into new ones, Sihlobo said.
This included investment “in port and rail infrastructure, as well as improving roads in farming towns”.
The government must work diligently to maintain and expand its existing markets in the EU, Africa, Asia, the Middle East and the Americas, and to lead the way in exploring new markets.
“SA should expand market access to key Brics countries, including China, India, Saudi Arabia and Egypt. The emphasis on the Brics grouping should be on the need to lower import tariffs and address artificial phytosanitary barriers that hinder deeper trade within this grouping. The discussion in Brics should move beyond the general rhetoric of intentions to meaningful trade arrangements,” Sihlobo said.
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